Deaths on the Cape Peninsula

If you live in the Western Cape and appreciate healthy fynbos, the future looks worrying. I have kept rainfall records on the south Peninsula for the last 15 years, and last winter was the second driest on record, being 30% below average. The summer that followed was the driest on record, being 50% below average (whilst most of the summer rainfall areas were flooded courtesy of La Nina). Not only was there a serious lack of rain, but it was also one of the windiest summers I can remember, and we all know that hot, dry windy days cause things to dry out faster than on windless days, so plants have been particularly stressed.
Since February this year I have observed large scale plant death in the south Peninsula, right across the geographic, habitat and taxonomic spectrum. Plants are literally dying left, right and centre. If it had impacted on just a few closely related species, or just on one small area one might suspect that a pathogen was to blame, but this is too widespread. It’s not the same everywhere – some areas look OK, but otherwise similar habitats nearby have been hard hit. Wetlands, rocky outcrops, deep acid sands, south slopes, north slopes and coastal Strandveld communities all show the signs – dead plants, in large numbers. In some cases 75% of all perennial plants in a 100 m2 area are dead. Significant mortality has been noted in the Erica, Passerina, Chrysanthemoides, Olea, Elegia, Thamnochortus, Cliffortia, Euclea, Agathosma, Leucadendron and Metalasia genera. Aspalathus, Diastella, Coleonema, Diosma and Phylica seem more resilient.
It would appear that we are looking at the ugly face of climate change. If you’re one of those climate change sceptics I suppose you’d just say this is a natural drought period, but the scale and unprecedented nature of the change seems to suggest that something else is at play here. The Western Cape is predicted to be hit harder by climate change than any other region in the country, and the trends we are seeing all fit the projections – shorter, drier winters; longer, hotter and drier summers; and stronger winds, especially in summer. Not all areas within the region will be impacted equally. From my basic observations in the last few months it seems as if the south Peninsula has been particularly badly affected (possibly due to the notoriously strong and relentless winds we’ve had to endure), and if the trend continues we could see dramatic shifts in vegetation patterns and species abundance. Many already rare species could be rapidly driven to extinction, especially if you combine the above with artificially increased fire frequencies (which is likely).
Now would appear to be a good time to be a bulb or an annual, or perhaps a succulent.
Nick Helme, Scarborough


ABOVE: View of drought affected coastal thicket (Strandveld) near Kommetjie, showing dead plants of Cliffortia obcordata in foreground, with Wyfieriet (Thamnochortus erectus) on
its last legs. Dead Thicket elements in background.
ABOVE: Close-up of dead Dune Olive (Olea exasperata) and Bastard Ironwood (Olea capensis subsp. capensis). In some areas even large Guarries (Euclea racemosa) plants that must be at least 50 years old, are dead. Photos: Nick Helme.